The best two months in sports start tomorrow. Forget the regular season, forget the standings, forget every bad loss and every blown lead and every game that felt like it mattered and didn’t. The bracket is set, sixteen teams are in, and somebody is going to lift the Cup in June. The rest is just hockey. Beautiful, chaotic, playoff hockey. Let’s get into it.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators
Watching the Carolina Hurricanes play hockey can sometimes be considered a slog. Like watching paint dry if you’re not into defense. Rod Brind’Amour’s man-to-man defensive system makes it difficult for opposing teams to generate chances with any sort of frequency. That is by design and it works, but it is not always a fun evening at the rink. Logan Stankoven, who came over from Dallas at the deadline last season, described the adjustment: “Carolina’s very man on man, like the whole time. In Dallas, in zone it was kind of man on man, but other than that, it was just kind of go and play.” Players who have been in other systems notice it immediately. Rod the Bod’s system is hard to play in. It is also desperately hard to play against.
The official stance I’m taking is that the Canes pick up the games at home, and Ottawa’s goaltending issues on the rebound do them no favors against a Carolina team that specifically prefers that second chance opportunity. Linus Ullmark’s struggles with rebounds have been a season-long theme for the Senators. They are going to outwork Ottawa in the dirty areas and the numbers are going to reflect that over a series.
On the other hand, Ottawa is exactly the kind of team that can wear the Canes out if they get going on the road. Brady Tkachuk is a problem. The Sens have energy. This is not a sweep situation. But the home games are going to be an uphill battle for Ottawa and I think the hill gets too steep.
I also look forward to seeing whatever passive aggressive communication management graces us with if this series gets contentious.
Canes in 5
Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins
The narrative versus the dynasty. If you had told me in November that I would be writing about a Bruins and Sabres matchup in the playoffs and asked me, gun to my head, who the dominant force was and who the wild card was, I can tell you with full certainty we would not be having this conversation. But alas, here we are.
I think maybe there is an expectation to temper the hopes of Sabres fans, to look at this team that has struggled for over half my life and say “surely the road ends here,” but I have to look at this matchup and wonder what faith you can have in the Bruins outside of what the Bruins are supposed to be.
You have to forget tradition and history when making this pick and look at the facts. The Bruins sit in the bottom half of the NHL in five-on-five scoring chances, high-danger chances and expected goals per 60, and have outperformed their underlying metrics more than the Sabres have this season. Boston’s first two wins in the head-to-head this season came in October when the Sabres were still in sad-sack mode, and the second of them relied on a 37-save effort from backup Joonas Korpisalo to beat Buffalo in overtime in a game where Buffalo had more than 73 percent of the five-on-five expected goals. Buffalo comes into this series with one of the best goalie tandems in the NHL, with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen posting a 2.52 GAA and .910 save percentage, and Alex Lyon at 2.77 and .907. That is two capable playoff starters. Boston has Jeremy Swayman, who had a bounce-back year, but this Sabres team is deeper and hungrier and playing at home in front of a building that has been waiting fourteen years for this moment.
Sabres in 6. Welcome back, Buffalo.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
The head and the heart are at odds for me with this one.
This series is a genuinely fascinating clash of identities. Tampa’s average age is 28.7, with 19 players who have five or more NHL seasons. Montreal’s is 25.9, with seven players in their first or second year. Experience versus energy. Pedigree versus potential. The Lightning have veterans who know exactly what playoff hockey costs and have paid it before. The Canadiens have Cole Caufield, who scored 50 goals with 31 of them coming after January 1st, leading the league in that span, Nick Suzuki, who became the first Canadiens player to eclipse 100 points in 40 years this season, Lane Hutson, and Ivan Demidov, representing the rookies.
And then there is Vasilevskiy, who is simply a different category of problem. His 2.31 GAA and .912 save percentage rank him as a top-three goalie this season, he has the most career playoff wins among active netminders at 67, and his .918 save percentage in the postseason is elite. Montreal’s goalies have combined for six career NHL playoff games. Vasilevskiy has 120. Jakub Dobes has been good for Montreal down the stretch, posting a .938 save percentage over his last ten starts with a 1.87 GAA, peaking at exactly the right time, but asking a young goaltender to go toe-to-toe with one of the best playoff performers of his generation, in Tampa, in a building that knows how to host this, is a tall order.
If I’m thinking clearly, I have Montreal in 6. The Habs lose on the road to a Tampa team very comfortable hosting the playoffs, but with the travel up to Quebec and the speed of Montreal, I can see Tampa getting a little tired and the Habs taking advantage of that slip. The Canadiens are ascending. They are young and fast and that Bell Centre crowd is one of the most powerful forces in hockey. The curious wrinkle is that Vasilevskiy was in net for both of Tampa’s losses in the season series against Montreal. If that pattern holds it gets very interesting very fast.
But I said it back in January and I will say it again: I have a weird gut feeling that the Bolts make a deep run this year. Call it intuition or call it vibes, but despite everything I have just explained to you in depth, against the logic I laid out in the sentence before this one:
Bolts in 6
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Battle of Pennsylvania is back, which is funny because neither of these teams should probably be here and yet here they are.
Thoughts and prayers, by the way, to fans of Florence and the Machine. Game 4 of this series will force the cancellation or rescheduling of a Florence and the Machine concert at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia. I would not wish Atlantic City on my worst enemy, but that is apparently where that’s going.
This series feels nostalgic to me. Being a teenager and watching Crosby and his deep, abiding, enthusiastic hatred for the team in orange was genuinely entertaining television for teenage me. Crosby has more goals against the Flyers than any other NHL team in his career, at 60, and has scored against them in every building they have played in since he entered the league. He is hungry for it and his teammates know it. Defenseman Connor Clifton said: “Obviously, ‘Battle of Pennsylvania,’ a little history there. I’m sure Sid’s licking his chops.”
Welcome back to the playoffs, Sid the Kid. The Penguins have been running on fumes and veteran pride for a couple of years now, and this Flyers team went on a heater down the stretch to get here, winning 12 of their last 16 after being nine points out of a playoff spot in March. The season series was split, with Pittsburgh winning the high-event games and converting on the power play at a ridiculous 75% rate against Philadelphia’s penalty kill.
Call it nostalgia:
Pitt in 6
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings
Well. LA is finally free of the Oilers in the first round, but at what cost.
The Presidents’ Trophy curse is very real to me and I have written about it at length on this blog. No Presidents’ Trophy winner has gone on to win the Stanley Cup since the Blackhawks in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. That is thirteen years of the best regular season team going home early in often times embarrassing fashion.
But if there was ever a team designed to beat it, it would be this one. Colorado finished strong with Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and a deep roster built by people who understand what it takes to win in June. The Kings are a fine team and Anze Kopitar’s farewell tour deserves more than a first-round exit at the hands of the best team in hockey. It is not going to get that.
I’m not going to be bold here.
Avs in 4
Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild
Another case of the head and the heart.
Stats and betting books all have this series at nearly even money. Being a Wild fan, I am deeply resistant to getting my hopes up. We have lost plenty of series we were supposed to win. Dallas has beaten Minnesota in the first round in both 2023 and 2016. I know this. I live with this.
But there is something different about the Wild this year. Recently they have been crawling into a wild card slot a little battered, a little short. This time they are coming in healthy and hungry and with more firepower than they have ever had before. Even without considering the addition of Quinn Hughes, this was always going to be a very different Wild team. Minnesota is healthier from top to bottom and has been meaner on the forecheck. Their power play sits at 27.9%, and the Boldy-Eriksson Ek-Johansson line has posted a 30-13 game score in 47 games at five-on-five.
Dallas, on the other hand, has played consistent hockey up until very recently. The Stars went 16-2-1 in a March heater before losing seven of their next nine, and key players including Roope Hintz, Sam Steel and Miro Heiskanen have all dealt with injuries down the stretch.
The Wild are healthier. The Wild are deeper than they have been. The Wild have Quinn Hughes on the blue line and Kaprizov on the top line and Boldy having the season of his career.
Wild in 7. With the full acknowledgment that this is not me being a homer, this genuinely goes against every instinct I have built up over years of watching this team find new ways to break my heart, and I mean it.
I think.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth
Sin city versus the Mormon capital of the world. The jokes write themselves and I will leave them on the table.
I think Tortorella was sort of a kick in the butt for this Vegas team. It’s either inspired or going to blow up in their faces spectacularly, and with John Tortorella there is genuinely never an in-between. The Oilers’ Connor Ingram is the confirmed starter in Edmonton, while the Ducks are rolling with Lukas Dostal, who posted 12.82 goals saved above expected on the season. Over in Vegas, goaltending consistency has been a legitimate question all season. I have very little faith in that being maintained over a full series.
And I think this Utah roster is going to be very hungry. A lot of people have been saying “playoffs so early in this franchise’s history” as if that is a reason to dismiss them, and I feel the need to acknowledge the men on this roster who came from Arizona, who have been fighting their way toward something for years under a different name in a different city and who want this badly. Utah is a gritty team. They want it more.
Utah in 5
Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks
On one hand: Connor McDavid. On the other hand: if Connor Ingram gets hurt and Tristan Jarry is your guy down the stretch, you are in serious trouble.
The Oilers’ goaltending situation this season has been, to put it charitably, a mess. Stuart Skinner was dealt to Pittsburgh in December, Calvin Pickard posted a .871 save percentage through 16 appearances before the team turned to Ingram, and the midseason acquisition of Jarry has not worked out, with Jarry posting an .858 save percentage in 18 games since the trade. Ingram has been the stabilizing force down the stretch and is the confirmed starter heading into the playoffs. He has been solid.
If Ingram stays healthy, I see the weasily Oilers weaseling their way into a deep run anyway, because McDavid at playoff time is a different variable than McDavid in the regular season, and Anaheim, for all their excitement and their energy, is still a young team in their first playoff appearance since 2018. Dostal has been good for Anaheim but this is a different stage.
If Ingram gets hurt and Jarry goes in, it’s over. And maybe the beginning of the end of what this McDavid era was supposed to be.
Regardless:
Oilers in 5. But I don’t know if they go into the second round fully healthy, and that matters a lot for what comes next.
A disclaimer before we go
I am a hockey nerd with a laptop and access to Natural Stat Trick. I am not an insider, not a journalist, not someone with any particular authority beyond having watched a lot of hockey and having feelings about it. I can be and probably will be wrong about several of these.
But that is the beauty of it. The playoffs have a way of making fools of everyone who thought they had it figured out. Some of my picks are going to age terribly and I am making peace with that now. The surprises are coming and I genuinely look forward to every single one of them.
See you on the other side.
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